Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tienen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Heist 4-0 Tienen
Original prediction
Tienen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 46.2% | 30.8% | -15.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.5% | 23.1% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 3.28 | 27.3% | 46.1% | 18.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
Tienen
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Tienen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HeistLDWLD
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TienenDDWDW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
HeistTienen
40.0Attack80.0
26.7Defence46.7
26.7Form46.7
34.5Power56.5
1.44xG2.38