Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heist · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Heist 2-1 Harelbeke
Original prediction
Heist
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 52.4% | 42.7% | -9.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 24.7% | 26.6% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.91 | 22.8% | 30.7% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Heist
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Heist has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HeistLWDLW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
HarelbekeLDWWD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
HeistHarelbeke
0.0Attack0.0
0.0Defence0.0
0.0Form0.0
7.0Power7.0
1.70xG1.45