Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Antwerp · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Heist 0-1 Antwerp
Original prediction
Antwerp
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 14:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.78 | 10.4% | 31.7% | 21.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.53 | 16.5% | 24.2% | 7.7 pts |
| Away | 1.25 | 73.1% | 44.1% | -29.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-29.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Antwerp
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Antwerp has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HeistDWLDL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AntwerpLLLLL
GF 3 · GA 15 · avg 0.60/3.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
HeistAntwerp
66.7Attack50.0
33.3Defence50.0
33.3Form50.0
45.3Power50.0
1.94xG1.72