Heilongjiang Lava Springvs
Yanbian Longding
COMPLETEDChina · League One · 10/25/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Yanbian Longding · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1-2 Yanbian Longding
Original prediction
Yanbian Longding
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 06:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 42.8% | 31.6% | -11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.2% | 27.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 30.0% | 41.3% | 11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Yanbian Longding
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Yanbian Longding has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20