Heilongjiang Lava Springvs
Suzhou Dongwu
COMPLETEDChina · League One · 8/29/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heilongjiang Lava Spring · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3-4 Suzhou Dongwu
Original prediction
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 41.6% | 46.7% | 5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.8% | 26.0% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 29.5% | 27.3% | -2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80