Heilongjiang Lava Springvs
Dongguan United
COMPLETEDChina · League One · 9/19/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heilongjiang Lava Spring · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1-1 Dongguan United
Original prediction
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 56.4% | 61.7% | 5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.4% | 19.8% | -4.6 pts |
| Away | 4.70 | 19.2% | 18.5% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.69 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Probability
61.7%
Model confidence
61.7%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60