Hegelmann Litauenvs
Suduva Marijampole
COMPLETEDLithuania · A Lyga · 9/20/2026, 11:15:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Suduva Marijampole · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 Suduva Marijampole, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Hegelmann Litauen 1-1 Suduva Marijampole
Original prediction
Suduva Marijampole
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.58 | 19.5% | 13.7% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 25.6% | 22.5% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 54.9% | 63.8% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.9 pts
Projected Score
Hegelmann Litauen 0–1 Suduva Marijampole
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Suduva Marijampole
Probability
63.8%
Model confidence
63.8%
Suduva Marijampole has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40