Hegelmann IIvs
Tauras
COMPLETEDLithuania · 1 Lyga · 10/16/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tauras · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hegelmann II 4-4 Tauras
Original prediction
Tauras
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.32 | 27.1% | 17.2% | -9.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 22.3% | 18.2% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 1.77 | 50.6% | 64.7% | 14.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.03 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–210%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Tauras
Probability
64.7%
Model confidence
64.7%
Tauras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Hegelmann IIWLLWL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
TaurasWLLDD
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Hegelmann IITauras
39.7Attack57.3
28.2Defence58.7
32.1Form57.3
35.5Power58.7
1.00xG2.43