Hegelmann IIvs
FA Šiauliai II
COMPLETEDLithuania · 1 Lyga · 9/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hegelmann II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hegelmann II 5-1 FA Šiauliai II
Original prediction
Hegelmann II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 38.4% | 46.2% | 7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.3% | 23.2% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 36.3% | 30.6% | -5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Hegelmann II
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Hegelmann II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40