Hegelmann IIvs
Dainava
COMPLETEDLithuania · 1 Lyga · 9/18/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dainava · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hegelmann II 0-1 Dainava
Original prediction
Dainava
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.37 | 20.4% | 15.2% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 22.3% | 19.2% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 1.55 | 57.3% | 65.6% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Dainava
Probability
65.6%
Model confidence
65.6%
Dainava has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Hegelmann IILWLWL
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
DainavaLDLLD
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Hegelmann IIDainava
41.7Attack47.8
23.6Defence66.7
30.6Form53.6
34.1Power56.6
0.84xG2.15