Heerenveenvs
Excelsior
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 10/16/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heerenveen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Heerenveen 4-0 Excelsior
Original prediction
Heerenveen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 60.0% | 44.6% | -15.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.39 | 21.4% | 22.2% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 5.08 | 18.5% | 33.2% | 14.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Heerenveen
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Heerenveen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20