Heerenveenvs
AZ Alkmaar
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 9/6/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AZ Alkmaar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Heerenveen 2-3 AZ Alkmaar
Original prediction
AZ Alkmaar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.82 | 24.6% | 24.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 23.0% | 23.6% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.79 | 52.4% | 52.0% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
AZ Alkmaar
Probability
52.0%
Model confidence
52.0%
AZ Alkmaar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00