Hednesford Townvs
Spalding United
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spalding United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hednesford Town 2-0 Spalding United
Original prediction
Spalding United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.7% | 31.4% | -14.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.0% | 26.7% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.21 | 28.3% | 41.9% | 13.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Spalding United
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Spalding United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60