Hednesford Townvs
Radcliffe
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hednesford Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hednesford Town 4-1 Radcliffe
Original prediction
Hednesford Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 57.0% | 52.9% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 22.9% | 24.3% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 4.52 | 20.1% | 22.7% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Hednesford Town
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
Hednesford Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80