Hednesford Townvs
Harborough Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Harborough Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hednesford Town 2-1 Harborough Town
Original prediction
Harborough Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 39.6% | 30.3% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 25.3% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.69 | 33.7% | 44.4% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Harborough Town
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Harborough Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20