Hednesford Townvs
Brackley Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hednesford Town · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hednesford Town 3-2 Brackley Town
Original prediction
Hednesford Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 51.1% | 64.5% | 13.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.3% | 20.0% | -5.4 pts |
| Away | 3.85 | 23.6% | 15.6% | -8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Hednesford Town
Probability
64.5%
Model confidence
64.5%
Hednesford Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20