HEBCvs
Borussia Dortmund
COMPLETEDGermany · DFB Pokal · 9/1/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Borussia Dortmund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
HEBC 0-5 Borussia Dortmund
Original prediction
Borussia Dortmund
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 59.25 | 1.6% | 25.6% | 24.0 pts |
| Draw | 32.75 | 2.9% | 20.5% | 17.6 pts |
| Away | 1.01 | 95.5% | 53.9% | -41.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-41.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Borussia Dortmund
Probability
53.9%
Model confidence
53.9%
Borussia Dortmund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00