Haverfordwest County AFCvs
Holywell
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/18/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haverfordwest County AFC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Haverfordwest County AFC 1-0 Holywell
Original prediction
Haverfordwest County AFC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.29 | 69.4% | 53.9% | -15.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.92 | 18.2% | 21.8% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 7.22 | 12.4% | 24.2% | 11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Haverfordwest County AFC
Probability
53.9%
Model confidence
53.9%
Haverfordwest County AFC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 7 · GA 19 · avg 1.40/3.80