Haverfordwest County AFCvs
Caernarfon Town
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 10/9/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caernarfon Town · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-3 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Haverfordwest County AFC 1-2 Caernarfon Town
Original prediction
Caernarfon Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.56 | 19.7% | 14.6% | -5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.0% | 20.1% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 1.60 | 56.3% | 65.3% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–311%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Caernarfon Town
Probability
65.3%
Model confidence
65.3%
Caernarfon Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 17 · GA 5 · avg 3.40/1.00