The model projects 2.09 xG for Haverfordwest County AFC and 1.16 xG for Caerau (Ely) — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Haverfordwest County AFC holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's meaningful attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.Both sides have shown consistent scoring form recently — Haverfordwest County AFC finding the net in 7 of 10 matches and Caerau (Ely) in 6 of 10. That scoring reliability aligns with the xG projection and strengthens the BTTS case.

The model projects a combined xG of 3.25 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.