Havant & Wvillevs
Basingstoke Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 10/13/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basingstoke Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Havant & Wville 4-1 Basingstoke Town
Original prediction
Basingstoke Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.1% | 32.2% | -10.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.5% | 25.6% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 31.4% | 42.3% | 10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Basingstoke Town
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Basingstoke Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20