Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haugesund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 5-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Haugesund 4-2 Strommen
Original prediction
Haugesund
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 68.8% | 78.4% | 9.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.25 | 17.5% | 11.7% | -5.8 pts |
| Away | 6.70 | 13.7% | 9.9% | -3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.5–18%
Predicted outcome
Haugesund
Probability
78.4%
Model confidence
78.4%
Haugesund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HaugesundWWWWW
GF 15 · GA 1 · avg 3.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
StrommenDLWWW
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
HaugesundStrommen
100.0Attack50.0
43.9Defence27.3
74.2Form37.9
70.9Power40.3
4.44xG1.43