Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haugesund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-3 (6%), 1-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Haugesund 2-0 Stabaek
Original prediction
Haugesund
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 50.7% | 39.9% | -10.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.28 | 21.6% | 23.4% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.32 | 27.8% | 36.7% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–36%
- 3.1–26%
Predicted outcome
Haugesund
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Haugesund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HaugesundWWWWW
GF 16 · GA 3 · avg 3.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
StabaekWLLLL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
HaugesundStabaek
100.0Attack82.6
43.5Defence58.0
75.4Form65.2
71.4Power67.2
2.39xG2.56