Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haugesund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-1 (8%), 4-2 (7%), 5-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Haugesund 2-0 Sogndal
Original prediction
Haugesund
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.31 | 70.1% | 64.5% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.67 | 16.3% | 17.8% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 6.77 | 13.6% | 17.7% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–18%
- 2.4–27%
- 3.5–17%
Predicted outcome
Haugesund
Probability
64.5%
Model confidence
64.5%
Haugesund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HaugesundWWLWW
GF 18 · GA 8 · avg 3.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
SogndalLDWLL
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
HaugesundSogndal
100.0Attack60.0
40.0Defence20.0
71.7Form36.7
68.8Power40.4
4.50xG1.84