Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haugesund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 5-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Haugesund 3-0 Lyn
Original prediction
Haugesund
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 74.6% | 68.7% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 6.33 | 14.6% | 16.5% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 8.53 | 10.8% | 14.9% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.5–18%
Predicted outcome
Haugesund
Probability
68.7%
Model confidence
68.7%
Haugesund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HaugesundDWWWW
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LynLLLWW
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
HaugesundLyn
100.0Attack53.3
46.7Defence28.0
74.7Form37.3
72.0Power40.7
4.41xG1.45