Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haugesund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 4-1 (8%), 3-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Haugesund 3-2 hodd
Original prediction
Haugesund
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.17 | 79.1% | 68.6% | -10.5 pts |
| Draw | 7.36 | 12.5% | 15.7% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 10.99 | 8.4% | 15.6% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.4–18%
- 3.3–27%
Predicted outcome
Haugesund
Probability
68.6%
Model confidence
68.6%
Haugesund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HaugesundLWDWW
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
hoddWDLLL
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Haugesundhodd
96.3Attack58.0
44.4Defence34.6
72.8Form46.9
69.3Power47.9
3.89xG1.69