Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haugesund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%), 4-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Haugesund 3-0 Egersund
Original prediction
Haugesund
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 59.5% | 62.1% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.49 | 20.5% | 16.4% | -4.0 pts |
| Away | 4.58 | 20.0% | 21.5% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–27%
- 2.3–17%
- 3.4–26%
Predicted outcome
Haugesund
Probability
62.1%
Model confidence
62.1%
Haugesund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HaugesundLWWLW
GF 17 · GA 11 · avg 3.40/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
EgersundLWWDW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
HaugesundEgersund
100.0Attack57.4
33.3Defence40.7
68.5Form48.1
65.7Power49.0
3.48xG2.03