Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Hatayspor are 2W-1D-1L in their last 4 (WWLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.75 conceded, while Kasımpaşa are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 9 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 44.8 against 45.3. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.5% in the Süper Lig, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 34% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
34.5%
Model confidence
34.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.75
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00