Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erbaaspor · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hatayspor 0-3 Erbaaspor
Original prediction
Erbaaspor
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 12:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.92 | 30.9% | 31.2% | 0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.9% | 27.3% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 42.3% | 41.5% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Erbaaspor
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Erbaaspor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HataysporLLLLW
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ErbaasporLLLLW
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
HataysporErbaaspor
19.0Attack66.7
47.6Defence28.6
19.0Form33.3
31.3Power44.0
1.34xG1.79