Hastings Unitedvs
Waltham Abbey
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Trophy · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hastings United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hastings United 2-3 Waltham Abbey
Original prediction
Hastings United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 42.8% | 38.4% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.1% | 25.0% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 34.1% | 36.6% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Hastings United
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Hastings United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 17 · GA 5 · avg 3.40/1.00