Hartlepoolvs
Worthing
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/19/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hartlepool · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hartlepool 1-3 Worthing
Original prediction
Hartlepool
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 42.7% | 37.5% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.7% | 26.5% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 32.6% | 36.0% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Hartlepool
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Hartlepool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00