Hartlepoolvs
Woking
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hartlepool · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hartlepool 1-0 Woking
Original prediction
Hartlepool
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 42.0% | 46.9% | 4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.2% | 27.5% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.97 | 30.8% | 25.6% | -5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Hartlepool
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Hartlepool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80