Hartlepoolvs
Tamworth
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tamworth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hartlepool 0-1 Tamworth
Original prediction
Tamworth
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 43.0% | 36.9% | -6.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.4% | 25.9% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 31.6% | 37.1% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.90 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Tamworth
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Tamworth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40