Hartlepoolvs
Newcastle United U21
COMPLETEDEngland · National League Cup · 10/13/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hartlepool · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hartlepool 1-2 Newcastle United U21
Original prediction
Hartlepool
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 October 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.90 | 37.0% | 37.9% | 0.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 26.7% | 28.2% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.95 | 36.4% | 33.9% | -2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Hartlepool
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Hartlepool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00