Hartlepoolvs
Harrogate Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Harrogate Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hartlepool 0-1 Harrogate Town
Original prediction
Harrogate Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.53 | 25.8% | 23.9% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 24.6% | 24.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 49.5% | 51.6% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Harrogate Town
Probability
51.6%
Model confidence
51.6%
Harrogate Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60