Hartlepoolvs
AFC Hornchurch
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hartlepool · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Hartlepool 0-0 AFC Hornchurch, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Hartlepool 2-1 AFC Hornchurch
Original prediction
Hartlepool
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.9% | 36.0% | -9.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.5% | 28.7% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.33 | 27.6% | 35.3% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.9 pts
Projected Score
Hartlepool 0–0 AFC Hornchurch
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Hartlepool
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
Hartlepool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HartlepoolLLWLL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AFC HornchurchWWLWL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
HartlepoolAFC Hornchurch
22.2Attack36.1
52.8Defence47.2
25.0Form50.0
36.0Power46.8
0.89xG0.98