Hartford Athleticvs
Tampa Bay Rowdies
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/12/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tampa Bay Rowdies · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Hartford Athletic 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Hartford Athletic 3-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies
Original prediction
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.38 | 26.9% | 22.0% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.7% | 29.0% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.96 | 46.4% | 49.0% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Projected Score
Hartford Athletic 0–0 Tampa Bay Rowdies
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Probability
49.0%
Model confidence
49.0%
Tampa Bay Rowdies has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 0.80/0.20