Hartford Athleticvs
Sporting JAX
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/16/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hartford Athletic · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hartford Athletic 2-0 Sporting JAX
Original prediction
Hartford Athletic
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 61.0% | 65.5% | 4.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 21.4% | 20.3% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 5.16 | 17.6% | 14.2% | -3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Hartford Athletic
Probability
65.5%
Model confidence
65.5%
Hartford Athletic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40