Hartford Athleticvs
Louisville City
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One Cup · 10/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hartford Athletic · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hartford Athletic 0-1 Louisville City
Original prediction
Hartford Athletic
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 18:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 33.4% | 41.9% | 8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 30.0% | 27.1% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 36.6% | 31.0% | -5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Hartford Athletic
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Hartford Athletic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20