Hartford Athleticvs
Louisville City
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/25/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hartford Athletic · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hartford Athletic 2-2 Louisville City
Original prediction
Hartford Athletic
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.60 | 34.8% | 38.6% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.7% | 28.5% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.30 | 39.5% | 32.9% | -6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.54 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Hartford Athletic
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Hartford Athletic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80