Hartford Athleticvs
Birmingham Legion
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 8/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hartford Athletic · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Hartford Athletic 0-0 Birmingham Legion, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Hartford Athletic 3-2 Birmingham Legion
Original prediction
Hartford Athletic
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 49.5% | 41.3% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.2% | 31.3% | 6.1 pts |
| Away | 3.61 | 25.3% | 27.4% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Projected Score
Hartford Athletic 0–0 Birmingham Legion
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Hartford Athletic
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Hartford Athletic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80