Harrogate Townvs
Tamworth
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/12/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Harrogate Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 4-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Harrogate Town 3-1 Tamworth
Original prediction
Harrogate Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 52.6% | 58.1% | 5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.93 | 23.2% | 20.5% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 3.76 | 24.2% | 21.4% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.4–17%
Predicted outcome
Harrogate Town
Probability
58.1%
Model confidence
58.1%
Harrogate Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60