Harrogate Townvs
Gateshead
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 8/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Harrogate Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Harrogate Town 2-1 Gateshead
Original prediction
Harrogate Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 58.5% | 54.0% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.14 | 22.1% | 23.1% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 4.71 | 19.4% | 22.9% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Harrogate Town
Probability
54.0%
Model confidence
54.0%
Harrogate Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60