Harrogate Townvs
Bury
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bury · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Harrogate Town 3-1 Bury
Original prediction
Bury
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 October 2026 at 10:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 54.8% | 34.6% | -20.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 22.9% | 25.1% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 4.06 | 22.3% | 40.3% | 17.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Bury
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Bury has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Harrogate TownDWWWW
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BuryDWLWD
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Harrogate TownBury
33.3Attack100.0
66.7Defence75.0
33.3Form83.3
45.3Power80.9
1.28xG2.09