Harrogate Townvs
AFC Hornchurch
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Harrogate Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Harrogate Town 3-0 AFC Hornchurch
Original prediction
Harrogate Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 59.6% | 58.1% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 22.8% | 22.1% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 5.19 | 17.7% | 19.8% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Harrogate Town
Probability
58.1%
Model confidence
58.1%
Harrogate Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60