GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/10/2023, 6:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Accrington ST · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Harrogate Town are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Accrington ST are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Accrington ST hold a 20.6-point power-rating edge (37.2 v 57.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.7% in the EFL Trophy, while Accrington ST holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 74% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Accrington ST

Probability

43.7%

Model confidence

43.7%

Accrington ST has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Harrogate TownWLWWD

GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Accrington STWDLLW

GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Harrogate TownAccrington ST
55.6Attack60.0
11.1Defence46.7
33.3Form60.0
37.2Power57.7
1.78xG2.14
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