Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Harelbeke · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Harelbeke 0-4 Tienen
Original prediction
Harelbeke
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 40.1% | 37.2% | -2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.4% | 26.3% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 32.6% | 36.5% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Harelbeke
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Harelbeke has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HarelbekeLLDWW
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TienenLLDLL
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
HarelbekeTienen
16.7Attack66.7
16.7Defence0.0
0.0Form0.0
16.3Power26.7
1.67xG1.74