Harborough Townvs
St Albans City
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Harborough Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Harborough Town 3-2 St Albans City
Original prediction
Harborough Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 49.1% | 39.4% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 23.6% | 27.7% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 3.33 | 27.3% | 32.9% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Harborough Town
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Harborough Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 5 · avg 0.20/1.00
GF 16 · GA 4 · avg 3.20/0.80