Harborough Townvs
Spennymoor Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Harborough Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Harborough Town 3-1 Spennymoor Town
Original prediction
Harborough Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 20:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 54.7% | 41.8% | -12.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.2% | 25.6% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 4.31 | 21.1% | 32.6% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Harborough Town
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Harborough Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20