Harborough Townvs
Southport
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Harborough Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Harborough Town 1-0 Southport
Original prediction
Harborough Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 57.7% | 52.8% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.97 | 23.0% | 24.4% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 4.73 | 19.3% | 22.8% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Harborough Town
Probability
52.8%
Model confidence
52.8%
Harborough Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80